Industry Reports

Deutsche Bank Reports Summaries

080425 Deutsche Bank Report - Dr. Paper's Weekly Wrap Up (4/25/08)

Deutsche Bank - Equity Research

* Input costs are a big issue. Domtar warned of $35-45MM in q/q cost pressure (energy, fiber, chemicals, and transportation). As high energy costs ripple thru systems, pressure apt to rise in Q2 & Q3.

* Uncoated free sheet shipments plunged 9.6% y/y in March - big shift from Jan. & Feb. It is consistent w/ most anecdotal trade reports from March & early April. YTD UFS ship's are off 3.1%.

* Newsprint decline isn't easing. Consumption @ US dailies -15.2% y/y in March (-12.8% YTD), and overall consumption -11.1% y/y (-8.5% YTD). W/ demand falling & NA operating rate at 91%, it's likely that more closures/conversions are looming.